It's a rematch of last year's NFC Championship on Monday Night Football as the Lions travel to face the 49ers. Detroit cruised to a 13th win of the season as road favorites in Chicago on Sunday, capturing a 34-17 win over the Bears.
That cover ended a three-game ATS losing streak for the Lions, the current favorites in this year's Super Bowl odds.
San Francisco's playoff hopes ended on Sunday in Miami. Despite taking market support and closing as a favorite, the 49ers fell 29-17 to the Dolphins. In Week 17, the Lions are 3.5-point favorites against the 49ers based on NFL odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
This season, the Lions are 6-1 ATS away from home and have yet to lose a game outright outside of Ford Field.
Lions vs. 49ers Prediction: Trent Williams Key to Game
Depending on the status of 49ers tackle Trent Williams, my Lions vs. 49ers prediction is the Total Over 51.5 Points (-110). However, if Williams fails to play for San Francisco, my prediction shifts to the Lions Team Total Over. In either case, bettors should expect a dominant performance from the Lions offense.
Detroit ranks third in offensive expected points added (EPA) per play and first in offensive success rate. Perhaps most impressively about the Lions is their ability to score against good defenses.
Exclusive of their Week 16 matchup against the Bears, Detroit ranks fourth in offensive DVOA, having played the eighth-hardest set of opposing defenses, per ftnfantasy.com.
Now, Detroit faces a 49ers defense that has struggled this season against quality offenses. Albeit in a limited sample size, San Francisco has played two games against teams fifth or better in offensive DVOA this season: at Buffalo and Green Bay.
Both teams exploded for at least 35 points against the 49ers defense, which has kept only two teams under 29 points over their previous five games. As a result, it would come as a surprise if San Francisco can limit one of the best offenses in the league.
The unknown in this game is whether San Francisco's offense can exploit an injury ridden Detroit defense.
Purely because of injury absentees, Detroit has fallen from second in defensive EPA per play in Weeks 1-12 to 30th since Week 13.
There's a case Monday could provide a good buy-low spot on Detroit's defense. After all, San Francisco won't feature Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk or Jordan Mason.
But Williams generally unlocks the potential of San Francisco's offense. If he plays, it offers hope for the 49ers offense, which averages 8.8 more points with Williams starting.
