Fresh off their bye week, the Lions travel to Dallas hoping to extend their winning streak to three games.
The Lions opened at -3 against the Cowboys in Week 6 at the BetMGM online sportsbook on Sunday night.
Early betting has seen no movement on the Lions' spread, although the price has increased from -110 to -115.
Dallas also enters Sunday's game on a winning streak. After falling to the Ravens in Week 3 to fall to 1-2, Dallas won two straight against the Giants and Steelers to rise above .500.
Below, bettors can find my Lions vs. Cowboys prediction for Sunday's Week 6 contest based on NFL betting lines.
Lions vs. Cowboys Prediction: Detroit Spread Too Short
I'm betting the Lions to cover the spread (-3, -115) against the Cowboys in Week 6.
Detroit carries two clear matchup advantages over the Cowboys that should produce a victory.
First, the Lions should run the ball at will against a Cowboys defense incapable of stopping the run. Per Pro Football Focus, Detroit is fifth in rush offensive grades, while the Cowboys are 32nd in rush defense.
It's also a brilliant sell-high spot on Dallas, which just faced two teams 28th or worse in PFF's rush offensive grades. However, they're 0-2 straight up (SU) against teams 10th or better.
Additionally, Dallas' offensive line is going to have its hands full with a strong Detroit pass rush.
The Lions are second in PFF's pressure grades. Conversely, Dallas ranks 26th in PFF's pass-blocking grades.
If Dallas can't protect Dak Prescott, I question how they move the ball down field against a Detroit pass defense that's quietly T-12th in PFF's coverage grades.
Additionally, Lions head coach Dan Campbell has produced strong results when given extended rest.
Campbell is 12-5-1 SU with eight or more days between games and 7-3-1 SU with 10 or more days to prepare, irrespective of whether he's a market favorite or underdog.
Plus, he's 7-3 against the spread (ATS) as a favorite of -3 or shorter and 17-9 ATS overall as a market favorite.
One final element worth considering with Campbell: he does really well in revenge spots.
Since the beginning of last season, Campbell is 9-2 ATS against teams who won the previous meeting, including 7-1 as a market favorite.
Pair those trends with Detroit's matchup edges, and I'll back the Lions at -3 or better on Sunday afternoon.
