Week 10's Sunday Night Football matchup places the Detroit Lions up against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium.
The Lions moved to 7-1 in Week 9 with a convincing win over the Green Bay Packers. It's the sixth straight win for Detroit, which is currently the second favorite in the Super Bowl odds.
Perhaps most impressively is Detroit's consistent ability to cover the spread. Not since Week 2 against the Buccaneers has Detroit failed to cover the pregame spread.
In Week 10, the Lions are 3.5-point favorites against the Texans based on NFL odds at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
If Detroit covers the spread in Houston, it would mark the Lions' fifth straight cover on the road to begin the season.
Let's dive into my Lions vs. Texans prediction.
Lions vs. Texans Prediction: Target the Over/Under
Based on the strength of both defenses, my Texans vs. Lions prediction is the pregame Total Under 49 Points (-110).
This is such a high total for a primetime matchup. History also suggests this game projects as a strong candidate to finish under the total.
Dating back to 2004, primetime games with a total between 49 and 63.5 are 57% to the under. Over the last three seasons, such contests are 14-6 to the under.
When those games are a non-conference contest: 24-16 to the under (60%).
Even more surprising about this total is that it's listed in a game with two strong defenses.
Detroit sits third in defensive DVOA – third against the pass, ninth against the run – while Houston ranks second – sixth against the pass, fourth against the run.
That renders this a great sell-high spot on Detroit's over/under record. Since Week 4, five of Detroit's last six games have cleared this number.
Comparatively, the Texans have seen three straight games finish under this total. Houston also has a rest advantage over Detroit, which should give an edge to the defense.
Finally, bettors backing the under in Texans games have profited immensely under DeMeco Ryans.
Since the beginning of last season, the under is 10-0 in Houston home games when the closing total is higher than 41.5.
Expand the sample to include all Ryans games where the total is 41.5 or higher, and bettors will find the under is 17-3.
As a result, I'll take the under on Sunday Night Football.
